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Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the uncertainty in the output of a mathematical model or system (numerical or otherwise) can be apportioned to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs.〔Saltelli A., 2002, Sensitivity Analysis for Importance Assessment, Risk Analysis, 22 (3), 1-12.〕〔Saltelli, A., Ratto, M., Andres, T., Campolongo, F., Cariboni, J., Gatelli, D. Saisana, M., and Tarantola, S., 2008, ''Global Sensitivity Analysis. The Primer'', John Wiley & Sons.〕 A related practice is uncertainty analysis, which has a greater focus on uncertainty quantification and propagation of uncertainty. Ideally, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis should be run in tandem. The process of recalculating outcomes under alternative assumptions to determine the impact of variable under sensitivity analysis can be useful for a range of purposes,〔Pannell, D.J. (1997). Sensitivity analysis of normative economic models: Theoretical framework and practical strategies, ''Agricultural Economics'' 16: 139-152.()〕 including * Testing the robustness of the results of a model or system in the presence of uncertainty. * Increased understanding of the relationships between input and output variables in a system or model. * Uncertainty reduction: identifying model inputs that cause significant uncertainty in the output and should therefore be the focus of attention if the robustness is to be increased (perhaps by further research). * Searching for errors in the model (by encountering unexpected relationships between inputs and outputs). * Model simplification – fixing model inputs that have no effect on the output, or identifying and removing redundant parts of the model structure. * Enhancing communication from modelers to decision makers (e.g. by making recommendations more credible, understandable, compelling or persuasive). * Finding regions in the space of input factors for which the model output is either maximum or minimum or meets some optimum criterion (see optimization and Monte Carlo filtering). * In case of calibrating models with large number of parameters, a primary sensitivity test can ease the calibration stage by focusing on the sensitive parameters. Not knowing the sensitivity of parameters can result in time being uselessly spent on non-sensitive ones.〔Bahremand A., and De Smedt F. (2008). Distributed Hydrological Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis in Torysa Watershed, Slovakia, Water Resources Management, 22: 293-408.()〕 Taking an example from economics, in any budgeting process there are always variables that are uncertain. Future tax rates, interest rates, inflation rates, headcount, operating expenses and other variables may not be known with great precision. Sensitivity analysis answers the question, "if these variables deviate from expectations, what will the effect be (on the business, model, system, or whatever is being analyzed), and which variables are causing the largest deviations?" ==Overview== A mathematical model is defined by a series of equations, input variables and parameters aimed at characterizing some process under investigation. Some examples might be a climate model, an economic model, or a finite element model in engineering. Increasingly, such models are highly complex, and as a result their input/output relationships may be poorly understood. In such cases, the model can be viewed as a black box, i.e. the output is an opaque function of its inputs. Quite often, some or all of the model inputs are subject to sources of uncertainty, including errors of measurement, absence of information and poor or partial understanding of the driving forces and mechanisms. This uncertainty imposes a limit on our confidence in the response or output of the model. Further, models may have to cope with the natural intrinsic variability of the system (aleatory), such as the occurrence of stochastic events.〔Der Kiureghian, A., Ditlevsen, O. (2009) Aleatory or epistemic? Does it matter?, Structural Safety 31(2), 105-112.〕 Good modeling practice requires that the modeler provides an evaluation of the confidence in the model. This requires, first, a quantification of the uncertainty in any model results (uncertainty analysis); and second, an evaluation of how much each input is contributing to the output uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis addresses the second of these issues (although uncertainty analysis is usually a necessary precursor), performing the role of ordering by importance the strength and relevance of the inputs in determining the variation in the output.〔 In models involving many input variables, sensitivity analysis is an essential ingredient of model building and quality assurance. National and international agencies involved in impact assessment studies have included sections devoted to sensitivity analysis in their guidelines. Examples are the European Commission (see e.g. the (guidelines ) for impact assessment), the White House Office of Management and Budget, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and US Environmental Protection Agency's (modelling guidelines ). 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「sensitivity analysis」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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